추계학술연구발표회
Macroeconomic Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns(강장구,김동석,이창준,민병규)
작성자 관리자
등록일2009.06.09
조회수5403
We develop a conditional version of the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) using the conditioning variable from the cointegrating relation among macroeconomic variables (dividend yield, term spread, default spread, and short-term interest rate). Our conditioning variable has a strong power to predict market excess returns in the presence of competing predictive variables. In addition, our conditional CCAPM performs about as well as Fama and Frenchs (1993) three-factor model in explaining the cross-section of the Fama and French 25 size and book-to-market sorted portfolios. Our specification shows that value stocks are riskier than growth stocks in bad times, supporting the risk-based story.
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